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Love and War
Jul. 27th, 2015 09:24 pmIf you were wondering, the volcano in Pompeii didn't even rumble until two-thirds of the way through. There were only 30-odd minutes of actual volcano action, and even then it was incidental to Senator Keifer Sutherland's mad vendetta against Jon Snow. I mean, there is bearing a grudge, and then there is making someone duel to the death while a volcano erupts around you. Pompeii was no Dante's Peak, that's for sure. It was more Titanic + Gladiator + fireballs.
I meant to say in yesterday's entry that while I was in Melbourne on Saturday, walking from the train station to the Craft Fair, pedestrian traffic was held up while a film crew shot a car chase scene. Well, they filmed a white car going around a corner with a police car behind. I'm sure there would be more to the chase scene than that. I've no idea what film/show it was for, though.
I should be doing some work on my MBA subject for this term, which is all about Thinking and Decision-Making. However, on reading the study guide, which began "Read chapters 2-6 of the text", I Thought and Made the Decision that I just can't face five chapters about cognitive bias tonight.
Last week we had to do a little activity, which was supposed to demonstrate the dangers of over-confidence in decision-making. Shall we try it now?
Four quantities appear below. Do not look up any information about these items. For each, write down your best estimate. Next, put a lower and upper bound around your estimate so that you are 98 percent confident that your range surrounds the actual quantity. Make your range wide enough that there is a 98 percent chance the truth lies inside it.
a. Wal-Mart's 2010 revenue
b. World population as of January 2012
c. Rank of McDonald's in the 2010 Fortune 500
d. Number of deaths due to motor vehicle accidents in 2008, worldwide
There were more than four, actually, but four will do. This was supposed to teach us the dangers of over-confidence, because very few people manage to get anywhere near the right answer, and their guessed range is much too narrow.
( My answers )
( Actual answers )
I meant to say in yesterday's entry that while I was in Melbourne on Saturday, walking from the train station to the Craft Fair, pedestrian traffic was held up while a film crew shot a car chase scene. Well, they filmed a white car going around a corner with a police car behind. I'm sure there would be more to the chase scene than that. I've no idea what film/show it was for, though.
I should be doing some work on my MBA subject for this term, which is all about Thinking and Decision-Making. However, on reading the study guide, which began "Read chapters 2-6 of the text", I Thought and Made the Decision that I just can't face five chapters about cognitive bias tonight.
Last week we had to do a little activity, which was supposed to demonstrate the dangers of over-confidence in decision-making. Shall we try it now?
Four quantities appear below. Do not look up any information about these items. For each, write down your best estimate. Next, put a lower and upper bound around your estimate so that you are 98 percent confident that your range surrounds the actual quantity. Make your range wide enough that there is a 98 percent chance the truth lies inside it.
a. Wal-Mart's 2010 revenue
b. World population as of January 2012
c. Rank of McDonald's in the 2010 Fortune 500
d. Number of deaths due to motor vehicle accidents in 2008, worldwide
There were more than four, actually, but four will do. This was supposed to teach us the dangers of over-confidence, because very few people manage to get anywhere near the right answer, and their guessed range is much too narrow.
( My answers )
( Actual answers )